Celtic plc (LSE: CCP) or CLTFF needs to win 3 of 8 matches in the UEFA Champions League to avoid elimination and advance to the knockout round in February. This would give them 9 points and according to thousands of simulations 9 points is enough for at least 24th place to avoid being one of the 12 teams eliminated.
When we told you the other day that Celtic got a good draw of opponents, we weren't kidding.
Celtic is facing three of the five clubs that have the highest odds of finishing last in the UEFA Champions League: Slovan Bratislava on September 18th, Dinamo Zagreb on December 10th, and Young Boys on January 22nd.
Celtic needs to beat three of the five worst clubs in the UEFA Champions League and they will advance.
We predict Celtic wins 4 of 8 matches to advance to the February knockout round. If Celtic wins 5 of the 8 matches, they will get 15 points and finish 8th place going directly to the final 16 avoiding the February knockout round! Celtic is better than Club Brugge, but they are going to be underdogs against Borussia Dortmund, Atalanta, Leipzig, and Aston Villa.
Celtic plc (LSE: CCP) or CLTFF is likely to earn the following from the UEFA Champions League:
1) Ticket Sales for 4 League Phase Home Games: €11.85 million or £10 million (payments received today September 9, 2024).
2) Down Payment on Equal Sharing Qualification Fee: €17.87 million or £15.08 million (payment to be received September 20, 2024).
3) European Media Rights Value Pillar 75% fee: €11.53 million or £9.73 million (payment to be received September 20, 2024).
4) Non-European Media Rights Value Pillar 25% fee: €3.84 million or £3.24 million (payment to be received June 13, 2025).
5) League Phase Performance Bonuses of €2.1 million per win and €0.70 million per draw. Odds makers will have Celtic as favorites to win 4 of their 8 league phase matches. If Celtic win 4 of their 8 league phase matches: €8.4 million or £7.09 million (payment for matches 1-4 to be received November 22, 2024, payment for matches 5-8 to be received February 21, 2025).
6) League Phase Ranking Fee: €275,000 per share (666 total shares to be divided between all 36 clubs) based on final league phase ranking. Last place equals 1 share. First place equals 36 shares. If Celtic win 4 of their 8 league phase matches Celtic would be estimated to finish 16th place, which equals 21 shares. €275,000 multiplied by 21 shares: €5.775 million or £4.87 million (payment to be received February 21, 2025).
7) Each League Phase Draw Adds €700,000 or €1,051 per share to the League Phase Ranking Fee. We estimate 25% of total matches could end in draw adding €25.2 million or €37,838 per share to the League Phase Ranking Fee. If Celtic win 4 of their 8 league phase matches Celtic would be estimated to finish 16th place, which equals 21 shares. €37,838 multiplied by 21 shares: €795,000 or £671,000 (payment to be received February 21, 2025).
8) Bonus Ranking Fee of €2 million for clubs finishing 1-8 in league phase and €1 million for clubs finishing 9-16 in league phase. If Celtic win 4 of their 8 league phase matches Celtic would be estimated to finish 16th place: €1 million or £844,000 (payment to be received February 21, 2025).
9) Knockout Round Playoff Qualification Fee for clubs finishing 9-24 in league phase: €1 million or £844,000 (payment to be received March 21, 2025).
10) Knockout Round Playoff Home Game Ticket Sales: €2.96 million or £2.5 million (payments to be received in early February 2025).
11) Balance of Equal Sharing Qualification Fee: €750,000 or £633,000 (payment to be received in October 2025).
Based on a most likely scenario of Celtic winning 4 of 8 UEFA Champions League Matches and advancing to the Knockout Round in February but failing to reach the Round of 16:
Celtic plc (LSE: CCP) or CLTFF would earn a total from the UEFA Champions League of £55.5 million.
This would be mostly all profit minus the cost of opening Celtic Park for five more home games and any unknown salary bonuses in player contracts related to the UEFA Champions League.
This would likely increase Celtic's net cash to £130 million and combined with Celtic's profits from the transfer market they would earn a record profit before tax in fiscal year 2025 of £60-£80 million or an estimated net profit of £50-£65 million.
Currently at £1.95 per share, Celtic plc (LSE: CCP) has a trailing P/E ratio of 7.80.
Based on our estimate of a record net profit of £50-£65 million this fiscal year, CCP has a forward P/E ratio of only 2.84-3.70.
If we factor in net cash at the end of fiscal 2025 of £130 million, Celtic at £1.95 per share will have an enterprise value of only £55 million or approximately 1X net income!
Celtic manager Brendan Rodgers believes a realistic goal is getting Celtic into the Round of 16. If Celtic achieves this goal, Celtic will earn much more than we estimate!
IF Celtic can advance to the Round of 16 by either finishing 1-8 in the league phase or defeating their opponent in the knockout round: Celtic will earn an additional bonus of €11 million or £9.28 million (payment to be received March 21, 2025).
IF Celtic can advance to Quarter Finals by defeating their opponent in the Round of 16: Celtic will earn an additional bonus of €12.5 million or £10.55 million (payment to be received May 16, 2025).
IF Celtic can advance to Semi Finals by defeating their opponent in the Quarter Finals: Celtic will earn an additional bonus of €15 million or £12.66 million (payment to be received May 16, 2025).
IF Celtic can advance to Finals by defeating their opponent in the Semi Finals: Celtic will earn an additional bonus of €18.5 million or £15.61 million (payment to be received June 13, 2025).
IF Celtic can win the Finals: Celtic will earn an additional bonus of €6.5 million or £5.49 million (payment to be received June 13, 2025).
Past performance is not an indicator of future returns. NIA is not an investment advisor and does not provide investment advice. Always do your own research and make your own investment decisions. This message is meant for informational and educational purposes only and does not provide investment advice.
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