It would not be surprising at all if Warren Buffett is beginning to sell his 915,560,382 shares of Apple (AAPL) stock that are owned by Berkshire Hathaway. If he is, it would take months to sell his AAPL in a way that is slow enough not to crash the stock based on his selling alone. For Warren Buffett to sell Berkshire's 915,560,382 AAPL shares, even at a slow methodical pace, AAPL will decline dramatically in the process. By the time the public is made aware of his share sales, AAPL may already be down by 40%-50% from its mid-July all-time high.
If he is indeed selling what will happen when this information does get disclosed publicly? The 3Q 2023 13-F filing deadline is November 14, 2023. In all likelihood, Warren Buffett wouldn't be able to sell Berkshire's entire AAPL position of 915,560,382 shares this quarter, so the actual 13-F filing on November 14, 2023 would only show a partial sale of his shares, but NIA believes he would definitely want to finish selling all of his AAPL holdings in the first half of 4Q 2023 prior to that 13-F filing being published.
Warren Buffett knows that his stamp of approval on AAPL has added a 20% premium to AAPL's market cap. If AAPL wasn't worth 8X revenue back when it was achieving its highest growth rates... it is absolute insanity that AAPL was trading with an enterprise value of 8.084X revenue on July 27th when NIA sent out an urgent alert to its members entitled, 'Do You Prefer AAPL at 8.084X Revenue or DAKT at 0.409X Revenue?!' (click here to read NIA's July 27th alert).
NIA said in its July 27th alert, "It is a safe bet that DAKT will be trading for 0.50X+ revenue soon, while AAPL will eventually trade for only 2-4X revenue. We laugh when we hear people talk about AAPL being the "safest long-term investment". Over the long-term, AAPL will get disrupted similar to how Nokia and Blackberry were. Last quarter, DAKT's revenue grew by 29.38% year-over-year vs. AAPL's revenue declining by 2.51%. DAKT's profit margins have just hit a new 20-year high vs. AAPL's profit margins having already peaked and likely to decline dramatically."
If it gets disclosed on November 14, 2023, that Warren Buffett's Berkshire is the big seller in AAPL, many investors will have an initial reaction of, "Phew, I'm so happy that I don't own AAPL shares." They will consider themselves to be lucky that they ignored everybody's advice to buy AAPL and made the "smart decision" to put 50% of their portfolio into SPY and put 50% of their portfolio into QQQ. Hours later, somebody will inform them that AAPL is the largest holding of both SPY and QQQ, and they will panic.
The passive investment fad is about to backfire when investors realize that SPY and QQQ don't have active portfolio managers who can simply sell out of AAPL. Investors who want to eliminate their exposure to AAPL will have no choice but to sell both SPY and QQQ.
Normally, investors who sell stock index funds/ETFs will go and buy bond index funds/ETFs like TLT, but despite receiving MASSIVE fund inflows of $21.77 billion over the last twelve months (much larger than SPY fund inflows of $13.37 billion and QQQ fund inflows of $3.75 billion), TLT is down by 19.24% from one year ago.
The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) has seen -$4.94 billion in fund outflows over the last twelve months, but GLD is up by 7.85% from one year ago. Everybody who bought TLT wishes they bought GLD.
When investors dump SPY and QQQ, GLD will see its largest short-term fund inflows in history! The highest quality gold exploration stocks with the best assets and strongest management will gain by 500%-1,000% in the very short-term future.
Past performance is not an indicator of future returns. NIA is not an investment advisor and does not provide investment advice. Always do your own research and make your own investment decisions. This message is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. This message is meant for informational and educational purposes only and does not provide investment advice.