BigBear.ai (BBAI) is up another 14.79% in pre-market trading to $3.88 per share despite the fact that BBAI insiders sold another $21,452,727 worth of shares on Friday. All together last week, BBAI insiders sold $61,042,637 worth of shares.
When BBAI first went public by merging into a SPAC in 2021, the company said, "Revenue is projected to grow from $182 million in 2021 to $764 million in 2025, a 43% compound annual growth rate (“CAGR”)."
On November 4th, BBAI issued its up-to-date projections for this calendar year, "For the year-ended December 31, 2024, the Company projects: Revenue between $165 million and $180 million."
Not only has BBAI failed to grow revenue at a compound annual growth rate of 43%, but its revenue has declined! To make matters worse, if not for BBAI making another acquisition this year (most likely to give their friends more shares to dump into the market), contributing towards severe dilution of 59.32% in 2024 alone... their revenue would have declined significantly more! Although BBAI brags of 3Q 2024 revenue growth of 22.12% year-over-year, its 3Q 2024 revenue per share declined by 22.79% year-over-year. At a compound annual growth rate of 43% their revenue for 2024 should have been $532.20 million but based on the mid-range of their latest estimate it will only be $172.5 million or 67.59% less than expected and that's after three-year dilution of 84.84%.
BBAI shouldn't have had any dilution at all in recent years after they said in 2021, "Free cash flow is projected to grow from $18 million in 2021 to $120 million in 2025, a 60% CAGR."
Instead, BBAI since going public in 4Q 2021 has had negative free cash flow for 11 out of the last 12 quarters! BBAI's only quarter of positive free cash flow was 3Q 2023 when they generated $3.836 million, but this deteriorated to -$6.204 million in 3Q 2024! BBAI's total free cash flow since going public three years ago has been -$123.885 million!
BBAI has 250.59 million shares outstanding for a market cap at $3.88 per share of $972.29 million and has net debt of $130.16 million for an enterprise value of $1.103 billion or 7.12X revenue of $154.97 million.
One Stop Systems (OSS) has an enterprise value at $2.68 per share of only $45.12 million or 0.856X revenue and generated positive free cash flow both in its most recent quarter of 3Q 2024 and on a trailing twelve-month basis! OSS revenue has increased from $12.65 million in 1Q 2024, to $13.20 million in 2Q 2024, to $13.70 million in 3Q 2024, and the company one month ago projected 4Q 2024 revenue of $15 million!
Click here to read their December 3rd press release about a brand new $200,000 purchase order shipping this month for two rugged AI Short Depth Servers supporting an Asian defense contractor’s all-in-one modular system designed to convert manned vessels into unmanned surface vessels (USV) for autonomous missions. The application integrates various mission controls and payloads for a wide range of applications to support defense, public safety, and security operations, allowing vessels to maneuver autonomously, intelligently and safely at sea.
Including this new order, it is likely that OSS will exceed its projection and report 4Q 2024 revenue of $15.2 million for positive year-over-year revenue growth of 15.50%!
OSS will likely see its revenue growth rapidly ramp up beginning in 1Q 2025!
We don't yet have photos of their newly developed OSS Ponto Reef PCIe 5.0 expansion system, but this is an industry-first product supporting up to 32 PCIe Accelerator Devices in a single chassis, enabling a best-in-class, high-density solution to serve GenAI/ML, HPC, visualization and data science applications.
Click here to read their November 13th press release about this new one-of-a-kind product and a $2 million purchase order from an AI data center infrastructure company with production to begin in 1Q 2025!
Past performance is not an indicator of future returns. NIA is not an investment advisor and does not provide investment advice. Always do your own research and make your own investment decisions. This message is meant for informational and educational purposes only and does not provide investment advice.
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