Best Estimate of MOX Fair Value

The most recent technical report for the Donkin Coal Mine released in 2012 indicated that the mine would produce 2.75 million tonnes of coal per year and sell 75% as coking coal to be exported internationally at an average long-term price of US$156.7 per tonne while selling 25% to the local power plant as thermal coal at US$122.20 per tonne for an average sales price of US$148.085 per tonne. Based on these numbers, Donkin would generate annual revenue of US$407.1 million (CAD$529.37 million).

Morien Resources (TSXV: MOX)'s royalty is worth 2% of the first 500,000 tonnes of quarterly coal production and 4% of all quarterly coal production of above 500,000 tonnes. Average annual production of 2.75 million tonnes equals 687,500 tonnes per quarter, which would result in MOX's royalty averaging 2.545% over the long-term.

Therefore, based on average annual revenue of CAD$529.37 million and an average royalty of 2.545%, MOX would earn an average of CAD$13.475 million in annual royalties. Because royalty companies don't pay any operating/capital expenditures, they typically trade for 10X revenue. This would value MOX at CAD$134.75 million or $2.66 per share.

Currently, Hampton Roads coking coal (the best estimate of what MOX's coking coal will sell for) is priced at US$347.50 per tonne. If we discount 25% of Donkin's annual production by 22% to reflect a lower price for the portion to be sold locally as thermal coal, Donkin will most likely sell its coal today at an average of US$328.39 per tonne. At current coal prices, Donkin is likely to generate annual revenue of US$903.07 million (CAD$1.174 billion). This would result in MOX generating annual royalties of CAD$29.88 million, which means a valuation of 10X revenue would value MOX at CAD$298.783 million or $5.91 per share.

However, based on ICE Newcastle Coal Futures, which have a current spot price of US$390 per tonne... coal futures are in backwardation and June 2026 coal futures are priced at US$235.75 per tonne for a 39.55% discount below today's spot prices. If we discount today's estimated Donkin average coal sales price of $328.39 per tonne by 39.55%, we get a long-term average Donkin coal sales price of US$198.51 per tonne. This means Donkin would generate annual revenue of US$545.9 million (CAD$709.67 million). This would result in MOX generating annual royalties of CAD$18.06 million, which means a valuation of 10X revenue would value MOX at CAD$180.61 million or $3.57 per share.

Depending on if we go by Donkin's 2012 technical report coal prices, current coal prices, or a discounted coal price based on the backwardation of futures contracts that expire four years from now, MOX's fair value is either $2.66 per share, $5.91 per share, or $3.57 per share, respectively.

Past performance is not an indicator of future returns. NIA is not an investment advisor and does not provide investment advice. Always do your own research and make your own investment decisions. This message is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. This message is meant for informational and educational purposes only and does not provide investment advice.