The Accuracy of NIA's Gold Moon Indicator

On May 14, 2022, NIA sent out an alert with gold at $1,812 per oz entitled 'Gold's Triple Extreme Moon Indicator' explaining, "Ever since NIA's President began investing into gold stocks in 2005, several of the world's largest institutional fund managers have told him in private about Gold's Triple Extreme Moon Indicator. However, not once in 17 years has Gold's Triple Extreme Moon Indicator been met... until now! At gold's settlement on Friday, Gold's Triple Extreme Moon Indicator has finally been met for the very first time in 19+ years!"

On December 26, 2022, NIA sent out an alert with gold at $1,798 per oz entitled 'Gold Moon Indicator Has Ended (Most Bullish Sign Possible for Imminent Gold Explosion)' explaining how NIA's Gold Moon Indicator was a combination of three conditions:

1) A gold price of less than 2.75% of M2 Money Supply Per Capita.

2) A U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) of above 102.

3) A negative Real Fed Funds Rate (U.S. inflation rate higher than Fed Funds Rate).

NIA explained how previously from the final day of gold's moon indicator on February 29th 1972, September 30th 1977, and January 7th 2003:

Gold achieved median gains of:

4.641% in 1 month

9.83% in 3 months

15.81% in 6 months

43.72% in 12 months

149.92% in 24 months

272.93% in 36 months

Currently at $3,043 per oz, gold has so far gained by 73.49% in less than 28 months from the final day of NIA's Gold Moon Indicator on November 30, 2022.

In our opinion, Nvidia (NVDA) and the phony/fake AI boom temporarily reinflated the technology bubble and slowed down gold's breakout, but on an overall basis NIA's Gold Moon Indicator has proven to be decently accurate so far! We are currently behind the pace of the gold rallies that began in 1972 and 1977, but ahead of the gold rally that began in 2003!

Here is a chart showing where gold would be trading right now based on the median of the rallies that began in 1972, 1977, and 2003 vs. the current gold price. When NVDA gained by 26.89% in May 2023, gold began underperforming NIA's Gold Moon Indicator. When NVDA declined by 10.59% in January 2025, gold began outperforming NIA's Gold Moon Indicator.

When the NVDA AI bubble and Crypto bubble go bust, gold will be $6,000+ per oz! We expect the highest quality small-cap gold explorers to begin making their big moves in the upcoming weeks/months!