Why the S&P 500 is About to Roll Over

The S&P 500 finished this week at 2,092.83 and is up 7.85% over the last twelve months from a level of 1,940.46 one year ago. In NIA’s opinion, the S&P 500’s rally has been running out of steam – and it will soon roll over and decline dramatically to the downside.

Currently, only 59.4% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 200-day moving average – the least since October 23, 2014. Despite the S&P 500 rising 7.85% over the last twelve months – one year ago, 85.6% of S&P 500 companies were trading above their 200-day moving average. The S&P 500 has increased by 152.37 points vs. the percentage of its companies above their 200-day moving average simultaneously declining by 2,620 basis points. This means the S&P 500’s rally is being driven by fewer and fewer companies – with many S&P 500 stocks already beginning to roll over and decline.

NIA has created a special exclusive chart comparing the S&P 500 vs. the % of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day moving average, over the last 25 months. Throughout the time period of May 1, 2013 through June 5, 2015 – the S&P 500 has remained in a solid uptrend vs. the % of its stocks above their 200-day moving average remaining in an equally solid downtrend – with it dipping to lower lows and continuously making weaker bounces to lower highs!

snp500tosoonrollover

So far in 2015, the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day moving average has failed to return to its trailing 25 month median of 80.20%. Six months have gone by since it was last at its trailing 25 month median of 80.20%. It now seems unlikely to return. Its next move will likely be to below 50%, where it dipped once in October, but only for a period of 7 trading days. If it falls to less than 50% and remains there for at least two straight weeks – look for it to trigger the S&P 500’s roll over!

Warn Others Immediately

Comments 1,923

  1. Most of the things you assert happens to be supprisingly appropriate and it makes me wonder the reason why I hadn’t looked at this in this light previously. Your piece truly did switch the light on for me personally as far as this subject goes. Nonetheless at this time there is just one point I am not too comfortable with and whilst I make an effort to reconcile that with the actual main idea of the issue, permit me observe exactly what the rest of the subscribers have to say.Very well done.

  2. Wonderful blog! I found it while searching on Yahoo News. Do you have any
    tips on how to get listed in Yahoo News? I’ve been trying for
    a while but I never seem to get there! Many thanks

  3. Hey just wanted to give you a brief heads up and let you know a few of the pictures aren’t loading correctly.

    I’m not sure why but I think its a linking issue. I’ve tried it in two different internet browsers and
    both show the same results.

  4. Thanks for the sensible critique. Me & my neighbor were just preparing to do some research about this. We got a grab a book from our area library but I think I learned more clear from this post. I am very glad to see such excellent information being shared freely out there.

  5. Market can be a highly speculative industry and something needs to investigation cautiously
    before buying a currency, if one wants to make a revenue.

  6. Take note, however, that trading currency involves significant possibility and folks could drop
    a substantial element of their expenditure.

  7. The purchase price ranges, nevertheless it is not impossible to
    seek out an outstanding forex process that can significantly raise your profits…” for
    about $100.

  8. A trading information detailing every one of the basics and logistics furnished for
    people who would rather get info through reading in the place of watching online.

  9. Futures Program Study the initial dialect and rules of commodities trading and the
    way to use the core strategy for optimum advantage.

  10. Understand the 4 most hazardous psychological thoughts for temporary merchants
    to improve your trading knowledge, while understanding just how to deal any world currency markets.

  11. These create markets to be analyzed by using particular specialized signs and
    decide on trading centered on those effects.

  12. Be sure to possess an excellent forum you are a part of so as you begin that you get added service and advancement further into trading that is online.

  13. Unfortunately, as many newcomers soon understand, having your fingers onto
    a worthwhile Forex opportunity can be quite a quite challenging mission.

  14. In reality, should you were to place ALL of commodities areas and the earth’s fairness together,
    their trading quantity that is mixed could
    just equal a QUARTER of the Forex market.

  15. Bitcoin is an interesting new type of electronic currency
    which will be getting used in increasingly more areas to deal aswell also to get goods
    and providers.

  16. Technical analysis: Complex analysis requires reviewing maps or historical information to predict the way the currency may shift depending
    on prior activities.

  17. Forex signals check with the various indications so that you can identify
    the correct occasion for selling and buying currencies utilized by
    forex dealers.

  18. For more than 8 years while in the Russian field of the Internet
    and in the CIS has cultivated a picture of the Forex Change
    being a fortune as well as a supply of lighting.

  19. Recruitment outcomes of Profession Site WEB OPTIMIZATION are
    obtained by way of the use ofJOBS Profession Microsites,
    which target the most relevant, and prime quality candidates by inserting acceptable job postings
    instantly on the prime of their online searches.

  20. To steps to make money trading alternative coins; virtual-currency trading a starter’s information is lucrative
    than traditional areas like forex – and more fun too!

  21. Although the total amount moves and ebbs, the Bank for International Negotiations documented the forex market deals in excess of $4.9
    billion U.S. daily.

  22. David Stanton may be creator and the inventor of Forex software instruments built
    to match effortlessly to the Metatrader and enhance your trading.

  23. Nonetheless, after the collapse of the Bretton Woods
    agreement rates exchange’s system gradually converted into a free-flying currency program.

  24. I have tried numerous EA, commercial, non-commercial and particularly my very
    own EAs depending on ALL SORTS OF Rules and Trading Methods, backtested.

  25. Hi, i think that i saw you visited my weblog thus i came to return the want?.I’m trying
    to in finding issues to improve my site!I guess its ok to use some of your ideas!!

  26. Remember that you should take your child into your local retailer, at very least to get his
    or her size updated. Vans can be very colorful,
    wild in design, and great in fit. Brighten up any dull kitchen with
    this natural product and create a spectacular looking kitchen.

  27. Forex currency trading runs on margined accounts along with
    the marketplace exercise is to trade on margin quantities that are small.

  28. Hello! Someone in my Facebook group shared this site
    with us so I came to look it over. I’m definitely enjoying the information. I’m bookmarking and
    will be tweeting this to my followers! Fantastic blog and amazing design.

  29. If we should ensure our trade may encounter the bottom possibility
    as possible, it’s advisable to check for different signs on timeframes.

  30. As an economical fanatic in the Forex market, balance of technological features and gut impulse are key characteristics for
    your achievement.

  31. Should you choosen’t like forex subsequently its fine but don’t insult forex indicating that its gamble as
    investors that are good knows its not chance whatsoever.

  32. Forex trading strategies make a dealer confident by helping and
    more sophisticated Him to make appropriate calculations about the
    market.

  33. Once you know how your specialistis method works, start trading modest
    quantities and just take the chance drop or you are able
    to manage to get.

  34. The Forex trading strategy that you choose to employ within the markets should be one which has not been ineffective for different merchants previously.

  35. Moving the line is the oddsmaker’s effort to stabilize betting action, and oftentimes such moves can have a significant influence on a bettor’s choice.

  36. But a reasonably good perception can be given by a
    historical information that is little as to the risks with applying forex signals,
    involved.

  37. He moves by taking a purchase placement, long” whenever a
    dealer perceives the bottom currency can go up in accordance with the second currency.

  38. Participate in Forex and forums, as that is such and forex sites,
    to keep up with news affecting foreign currency and political environments that influence trade.

  39. I can’t discover any reference to a travel agent low cost card anyplace of their advertising
    materials. Additional verification with WorldVentures agents has confirmed that you
    cannot get hold of this card till making an business customary of travel gross sales along with training and certifications related in nature to what traditional
    travel agents must endure.

  40. As a marketing technique for rising web site’s relevance, SEARCH ENGINE OPTIMIZATION consultants consider how search algorithms work and what people search for.
    A SEO process might involve a web site’s coding and structure,
    content material and copywriting, web site
    presentation, in addition to fixing other issues that can forestall search engines from indexing your skincare firm website.
    If your company’s website will not be listed by serps, there
    might be no probability at all in your website to get high
    visibility rankings for skin care related terms on engines like google.
    Therefore, this can be very essential for skincare companies to be aware of SEARCH ENGINE MARKETING and be sure that
    their websites are correctly indexed by search engines.

  41. It’s crucial before you pay somebody or another thing todo it for you, that you realize logical behind forex currency trading!

  42. Knowledge is power, so learn-as muchas it is possible to before your first business and use
    forex currency trading strategies.