The S&P 500 has just declined for the 8th consecutive trading day. Over the last two decades, the S&P 500 has only declined by eight consecutive days or more on one other occasion and it was during the 2008 financial crisis. One month later, the incumbent party lost the U.S. Presidential election when Obama crushed McCain by 7.3 points.
The S&P 500 has now declined -3.72% over the last 50 trading days. Only on three occasions since 1960 has the S&P 500 declined by a larger percentage leading into a U.S. Presidential election: in 1960, 2000, and 2008. The incumbent party lost all three of those elections!
Historically, for the incumbent party to win a U.S. President election, the S&P 500 must post gains during the 50 trading days leading into it. The average trailing 50-day percentage change of the S&P 500 when the incumbent party wins is a gain of 3.65%.
In comparison, the average trailing 50-day percentage change of the S&P 500 when the incumbent party loses is a decline of -2.52%. With the S&P 500 down -3.72% over the last 50 trading days including eight consecutive days of declines, all signs point to Trump winning the election!