Russia vs. Greece

Back on December 16th, Russia’s 10-year bond yield hit a record high of 16.24%. For a country with such low levels of debt and huge reserves to trade with a 10-year bond yield that high, NIA knew that Russia’s bonds were being manipulated by Wall Street in an attempt to destabilize Russia’s credit markets – as part of America’s financial war against Russia. One week later, after Russia’s 10-year bond yield had strengthened to 13.12%, S&P put Russia on “credit watch” indicating a 50% chance that they would downgrade Russia’s credit rating to “junk” in the near-future.

Despite S&P’s December 23rd announcement, Russia’s bond yield finished the day slightly lower. NIA considered this to be a sign that Russia’s bonds were about to rally big, and sent out an urgent alert to its members saying, “With the Ruble bouncing 51% from its low over the past week, Russia’s 10-year bond yield has strengthened back to 13.12%. S&P’s announcement today had little effect on Russia’s 10-year bond, with its yield finishing the day down 2 basis points. This is a sign that the worst is already priced in. Russia’s 10-year bond yield is likely to soon decline back into single digits – as investors begin to realize there is zero chance of Russia defaulting on its debt in the foreseeable future.”

NIA was the very first organization in the world to publicly become bullish on Russian bonds following Russia’s December panic, while the rest of the world was running scared like sheep. Yesterday, Russia’s 10-year bond yield finished back down to 10.57%, and is rapidly approaching single digits – just like NIA predicted!

Shockingly, when Russia’s 10-year bond yield peaked on December 16th at 16.24%, it was a record 704 basis points higher than Greece’s 10-year bond yield at the time of 9.20%. NIA considered this to be complete insanity – and proof that the US was engaged in a war to destroy Russia’s economy. NIA was 100% certain that the Russian 10-year bond yield trading 704 basis points above the Greek 10-year bond yield, was unsustainable and wouldn’t last for long!

Greece is the most indebted European country, with a govt debt/GDP ratio of 176.3% – up significantly from Greece’s govt debt/GDP ratio one decade ago of 100%. Russia is one of Europe’s most underleveraged and financially sound countries, with a govt debt/GDP ratio of 15.7% – up only slightly from a debt/GDP ratio one decade ago of 14.2%. Greece’s debt/GDP ratio is a shocking 11.23X higher than Russia’s debt/GDP ratio!

russiagreecegovtdebtgdpratios

Russia is a major producer of precious metals and energy commodities that it exports throughout the Eurozone and Asia. This has allowed Russia to prosper from 22 consecutive years of trade surpluses, including a record trade surplus in 2014 of over USD$142 billion. Greece has suffered from just the opposite – 22 consecutive years of massive trade deficits!

russiagreeceimportsexportstradebalance

Over the last 22 years, Russia has achieved a cumulative trade surplus of USD$1.166 TRILLION or an average of USD$53 billion annually. During this same time period, Greece has reported cumulative trade deficits of (USD$567.11 billion), for an average annual trade deficit of (USD$25.78 billion).

russiagreececumulativetradebalance

Over the last 16 years, Greece has seen its foreign exchange (FOREX) reserves (excluding gold) decline by 88.17% to only $2.16 billion! Russia’s FOREX reserves (excluding gold) have simultaneously increased by 3,836% to $356.6 billion! Greece in 1999 had double the reserves of Russia, but today Russia has 165X more reserves than Greece!

russiagreeceforexreservesexcludinggold

In 1999, Russia had a slightly higher unemployment rate than Greece. Since then, Russia has cut its unemployment rate by more than half to a record low in 2014 – while Greece’s unemployment rate has more than doubled to a record high in 2013. Currently, Greece has an unemployment rate that is 5.18X higher than Russia!

russiagreeceunemployment

Over the last 11 years, Russia’s GDP has grown at a compound annual rate of 16.54% vs. Greece’s GDP growing at a compound annual rate of only 0.026%. Russia has achieved 636X faster economic growth than Greece!russiagreecegdp

In recent weeks, as Russia’s 10-year bond yield has declined by 567 basis points to 10.57%, Greece’s 10-year bond yield has increased by 293 basis points to 12.13%. The spread between the 10-year bond yields of Russia and Greece has declined from 704 basis points on December 16th to -156 basis points today, which is equal to a dramatic shift of 860 basis points!

russiavsgreece10yearbondyield

 

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