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China Bubble Update

Since September 15, 2015, Chinese listed stocks (Shanghai+Shenzhen) have regained over $1.1 trillion in market cap – after losing $5.3 trillion in market cap from June 12, 2015 (when NIA perfectly called the top and warned of a crash coming in Chinese stocks) through September 15, 2015.

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China’s total market cap/GDP ratio peaked on June 12, 2015 at an “extremely overvalued” 110%. Afterwards, it reached a short-term bottom on September 15, 2015 of 60.35% – just below NIA’s “overvalued” threshold at the 75th percentile of 61.55%. Currently, China’s market cap/GDP ratio is back up to an “overvalued” 70.86% and is rapidly approaching NIA’s “extremely overvalued” threshold at the 90th percentile ¬†of 75%.

chinamcgdp10192015China’s market cap/GDP ratio will likely crash in 2016 to below its long-term median of 44.04%, but it may have more short-term upside before making its next major downward move. The Shanghai Composite has been following the 1999/2000 NASDAQ dot-com bubble extremely closely. At this stage of the dot-com bubble, the NASDAQ briefly bounced back above 4,000 – before crashing to below 2,000 one year later. The Shanghai closed this morning at 3,425.33 and could also see a short-term move towards 4,000 – before crashing back to 2,000 in 2016.

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The median Shanghai IPO from January/February 2015 is currently up 196.04% from its IPO price. This compares to a median gain at each IPO’s 2015 peak of 510.23%. On September 15th when the Shanghai hit its short-term bottom, the median Shanghai IPO from¬†January/February 2015 was up 135.31% from its IPO price.

shanghaiiposupdate10192015From their 2015 peaks to their September 15th lows, the median Shanghai IPO from January/February 2015 declined in price by 63.90%, but has since bounced by 34.13%. NIA predicts that most of these Shanghai IPOs from January/February 2015 will return to their IPO prices in 2016, but have more short-term upside potential before collapsing.

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